Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
