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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.